CrossFit Open 2027 Workout Predictions: What Movements to Expect (Data-Driven)

The CrossFit Open workouts are revealed one per week during the competition, but that doesn't mean you can't prepare. By analyzing 72 workouts across 16 years of the Open (2011-2026), we can identify the movements, formats, and patterns that are most likely to appear in 2027.

This isn't guesswork — it's pattern analysis. CrossFit has clear programming tendencies, and the data tells us exactly what to expect.

The Full Movement Frequency Map

First, let's see how often every major movement has appeared in the Open over the last 10 years (2017-2026):

The top 5 movements — thrusters, burpees, double-unders, chest-to-bar pull-ups, and bar muscle-ups — account for the majority of Open programming. If you can do these five things well, you're prepared for most of what the Open throws at you.

Which Movements Are "Due" for 2027?

Some movements appear almost every year. Others rotate in and out. By tracking which movements appeared in each of the last 5 years, we can identify what's overdue for a return:

Movements most "due" for 2027:

• Toes-to-bar — Last appeared in 2023. With 8 total appearances (2017-2026), TTB is one of the most common Open movements. A 3+ year absence would be unusual.
• HSPU — Last appeared in 2023. Handstand push-ups (strict or kipping) have appeared 5 times in the last decade. CrossFit loves testing inverted pressing.
• Wall walks — Absent from 2026, but appeared in 2022, 2023, and 2025. Wall walks have become a modern Open staple since their 2021 debut.
• Bar muscle-ups — Appeared in 2024 and 2025 but not 2026. The Open loves using BMU as a separator between advanced and elite athletes.
• Double-unders — In 4 of the last 5 years, but absent from 2026. Extremely likely to return.

Our 2027 Predictions

Based on historical frequency, recency patterns, and CrossFit's programming tendencies, here are our probability estimates for each movement:

Tier 1: Very Likely (70%+)

Thrusters (85%) — The most programmed movement in Open history with 14 appearances. Present in 4 of the last 5 years. CrossFit keeps coming back to the thruster because it tests everything: squatting, pressing, cardiovascular capacity, and mental toughness. The standard weight (95/65 lb) hasn't changed in a decade.

Burpees — some variant (80%) — Bar-facing burpees, lateral burpees, burpee box jump-overs, burpees over the bar. The specific variant changes, but burpees appear in some form almost every year. They're the universal equalizer — no skill required, just suffering.

Chest-to-bar pull-ups (75%) — The "bridge" movement between recreational and competitive CrossFit. C2B pull-ups appeared in 4 of the last 5 years and serve as the middle step in CrossFit's favorite pulling progression (pull-ups → C2B → muscle-ups).

Double-unders (70%) — Absent from 2026 after appearing in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. This is a classic "bounce-back" candidate. Double-unders are easy to program, test coordination under fatigue, and have a clear skill ceiling that separates athletes.

Tier 2: Likely (50-69%)

Wall walks (65%) — Introduced in 2021 and rapidly became a staple (4 appearances in 5 years). Absent from 2026, which increases the likelihood of a return. Wall walks test overhead stability and body control in a way that's hard to replicate with other movements.

Toes-to-bar (60%) — Eight appearances in 10 years, but absent since 2023. That's a long gap for such a frequently programmed movement. The odds of another year without TTB are low.

Deadlifts (55%) — The foundational barbell pull. Eight appearances in 10 years, last seen in 2025. Deadlifts at 225/155 lb are a staple that creates meaningful separation, especially when paired with gymnastics.

Dumbbell snatches (55%) — CrossFit programs at least one dumbbell movement per year since 2017. DB snatches are the most common (6 appearances). The 50/35 lb standard hasn't changed.

Bar muscle-ups (50%) — The ultimate Open separator. When BMU appear, they determine who makes Quarterfinals and who doesn't. Absent from 2026, but CrossFit may save them for 2027's Workout 3 (the traditional separator position).

Tier 3: Possible (30-49%)

HSPU (45%) — Haven't appeared since 2023 (strict and wall-walk format). Handstand push-ups are due for a return, but CrossFit has shifted toward wall walks as the inverted movement of choice.

Calorie row (40%) — The only cardio machine in Open history (no bike or ski erg has appeared). Six appearances in 10 years, last seen in 2025. Could return as part of a chipper.

Tier 4: Unlikely (Under 30%)

Ring muscle-ups (20%) — Just returned in 2026 after a 6-year absence. Back-to-back years would be unprecedented. Expect at least a 2-year gap.

Handstand walks (15%) — Only 3 appearances in 10 years. More of a Quarterfinals movement. Could appear as a late-workout separator but unlikely.

Pistols / Single-leg squats (10%) — Only appeared once (2020). CrossFit seems to have moved away from this.

Rope climbs (0%) — Have never appeared in the Open. Equipment requirements make them impractical for a home/affiliate setting.

Assault/Echo bike (0%) — Has never appeared. The rower remains the only machine in the Open.

Format Predictions

The Open has settled into a clear format structure:

Time domain: Most Open workouts fall between 10-20 minutes. Expect one shorter workout (8-12 min) and one longer one (15-20 min).

Workout difficulty curve: Since 2022, the pattern has been clear:

• Workout 1: Accessible to most athletes, tests engine and volume
• Workout 2: Moderate difficulty, introduces heavier weight or gymnastics skill
• Workout 3: The separator — heavy barbell, advanced gymnastics, or both

Weight Predictions

CrossFit uses remarkably consistent loading standards:

These weights have been the same since 2011. Don't expect changes in 2027. The variety comes from ascending weight schemes within a single workout (e.g., 95→115→135 lb), which have become increasingly common since 2022.

What the Repeat History Tells Us

CrossFit repeats workouts periodically. Notable patterns:

• 11.6 / 12.5 / 18.5: Thruster + C2B ladder (3-3, 6-6, 9-9...) — repeated 3 times
• 22.3 / 25.2: Pull-up → C2B → BMU progression — repeated after 3 years
• 17.1 / 21.2: DB snatch + burpee box jump-over — repeated after 4 years
• 18.4 / 20.3: Deadlift + HSPU + handstand walk — repeated after 2 years

The thruster + C2B ladder (11.6/12.5/18.5) hasn't appeared since 2018. That's a 9-year gap heading into 2027. If CrossFit wants a "classic" repeat, this is the most likely candidate.

Our Predicted 2027 Open Lineup

Putting it all together, here's what we think the 3-workout lineup looks like:

Workout 27.1 (Accessible, engine test)

Predicted format: AMRAP 15-20 min

Likely movements: Wall balls + double-unders + toes-to-bar or calorie row

Reasoning: Workout 1 has been the "everyone can participate" workout since 2022. High-volume bodyweight/light movements that test cardio capacity. Wall balls and double-unders are both "due" after being absent from 2026, and this is their natural home.

How to prepare: Build your engine. Practice wall balls at competition standard (20/14 lb to full target height), unbroken double-under sets of 50+, and toes-to-bar sets of 15+. Pace work matters here — this is a 15+ minute grind.

Workout 27.2 (Moderate, mixed modal)

Predicted format: For Time, 12-15 min cap

Likely movements: Dumbbell snatches or lunges + wall walks + deadlifts or cleans

Reasoning: The middle workout typically introduces heavier loading and more technical movements. Dumbbells appear at least once per year. Wall walks are overdue. This creates natural separation between athletes who can move efficiently under moderate load.

How to prepare: Practice dumbbell cycling (power snatches, hang cleans) at 50/35 lb for sets of 10-15. Get comfortable with wall walks under fatigue — they're much harder after heavy pulling. Work deadlift touch-and-go technique at 225/155 lb.

Workout 27.3 (Separator, heavy + gymnastics)

Predicted format: For Time, 12-16 min cap, ascending difficulty

Likely movements: Thrusters (ascending weight) + pull-ups → C2B → bar muscle-ups

Reasoning: This is the workout that determines Quarterfinals invitations. CrossFit's favorite separator format is the pulling progression (PU → C2B → BMU) combined with ascending barbell weight. Used in 22.3, 24.3, and 25.2 — it works. Add thrusters (the most common Open barbell movement) and you have a classic.

How to prepare: This is where the work happens. You need: unbroken sets of 10 thrusters at 95/65 lb and singles at 135/85+ lb; sets of bar muscle-ups under fatigue; and the engine to sustain 12+ minutes of mixed work. Practice the transition from heavy barbell to gymnastics — that's where most athletes lose time.

The 6-Month Training Plan

Based on these predictions, here's what to prioritize:

Now through December (Off-season):

• Build raw strength: squat, deadlift, press
• Gymnastics skill work: bar muscle-ups, toes-to-bar, wall walks
• If you can't do double-unders, now is the time to learn — they appear in ~70% of Opens

January (Open prep begins):

• Practice common workout formats: AMRAPs, For Time with caps
• Test your pacing at Open time domains (12-20 min)
• Drill transitions between barbell and gymnastics

February (2 weeks before):

• Reduce training volume, maintain intensity
• Practice the exact movement standards (wall ball height, full lockout on thrusters)
• Do a few mock Open workouts at race pace

Related

• CrossFit Open 2026 Results Analysis — How this year played out
• Open Strategy Guide — Data-backed competition strategy
• Percentile Calculator — Where did you rank in 2026?
• Level Calculator — What level CrossFitter are you?
• How the CrossFit Season Works — Open to Games explained

Analysis based on 72 CrossFit Open workouts from 2011-2026. Movement frequencies calculated from official workout descriptions. Predictions are probability estimates based on historical patterns and should not be taken as certainties. CrossFit can and does break patterns.